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Impact of Santi Cazorla

August 30, 2012 Ravi Ramineni 3 comments

Santi Cazorla moved to Málaga at the beginning of the 2011-12 season. The fortunes of Villarreal nose-dived culminating in relegation. Exactly the opposite happened at Málaga. Relegation candidates in 2010-11, Málaga finished fourth in 2011-12, qualifying for the Champions League for the first time in the history of the club. Cazorla moved to Arsenal a few weeks ago. This post attempts to quantify the impact of Santi Cazorla.

Methodology

Compare the overall performance of a club with and without Santi using certain Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
T-tests to determine the statistical significance of the differences in the datasets

Data

Full match event data of Villarreal in 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons provided by OptaPro

Assumptions

Giuseppe Rossi was out injured for most of 2011-12. His absence is not factored into the analysis.
Cazorla has played in multiple midfield positions at Villarreal. This analysis uses aggregate data of the player in 2009, 2010, and 2011.

Analysis

Points, goals and goal difference are the top-level KPIs to measure the success of a football club. I used shots, assists and the performance in the final third as lower level offensive KPIs that have a big impact on the top level KPIs. Since Santi Cazorla is an attacking player, I will only compare the lower level KPIs of the attacking side of the ball.

Top-level KPIs

Villarreal 2010-11 vs. Villarreal 2011-12

KPI	With Cazorla 2010-11	Without Cazorla 2011-12	Delta	Statistically Significant
Total # of games	37	38
Points per game	1.59	1.08	-32.34%	Yes
Goals per game	1.35	1.03	-24.05%	Yes
Goal difference per game	+0.16	-0.38	-333%	Yes

Villarreal with Cazorla & without Cazorla in 2009-10

KPI	With Cazorla	Without Cazorla	Delta	Statistically Significant
Total # of games	24	14
Points per game	1.50	1.43	-4.76%	Yes
Goals per game	1.54	1.50	-2.70%	No
Goal difference per game	0	+0.07	-	No

Observations:

Points per game are down in 2009 (with vs. w/o Cazorla).
The deltas in Goals per game and GD per game are not statistically significant.
Points per game, goals per game and GD per game are drastically down in 2011 compared to 2010. As stated earlier the absence of Giuseppe Rossi for most of 2011 could also have contributed to this huge difference.

Low level KPIs

The low level KPIs look at the impact of Santi Cazorla in the “offensive high-value” zones – the final third and the 18-yard box.

Villarreal 2010-11 vs. Villarreal 2011-12

KPI	With Cazorla 10-11	Without Cazorla 11-12	Delta	Statistically Significant
Shots on Target/game	5.4	4.6	-14.81%	Yes
Total shots/game	13.9	12	-13.67%	No
Penetration into the area(passes completed into the 18y box)	47.77%	44.35%	-7.16%	No
Pass completion % in final 3rd	72.76%	69.59%	-4.35%	Yes
Successful dribbles/game in final 3rd	4.62	3.50	-24.27%	Yes
Dribbles success% in final 3rd	34.41%	27.94%	-18.79%	Yes
ball recovery/game in the final 3rd	2.32	2.42	+4.16%	No
Interceptions/game in the final 3rd	2.32	3.05	+31.33%	No

Villarreal with Cazorla & without Cazorla in 2009-10

KPI	With Cazorla	Without Cazorla	Delta	Statistically Significant
Shots on Target/game	6.25	4.78	-23.52%	No
Total shots/game	12.33	12.78	+3.65%	No
Penetration into the area(passes completed into the 18y box)	42.41%	48.35%	+14.02%	No
Pass completion % in final 3rd	68.07%	66.87%	-1.77%	Yes
Successful dribbles/game in final 3rd	3.54	2.93	-17.27%	No
Dribbles success% in final 3rd	38.12%	40.59%	+6.50%	No
ball recovery/game in the final 3rd	3.13	1.79	-42.86%	Yes
Interceptions/game in the final 3rd	2.13	1.21	-42.86%	Yes

Observations

Shots on target is down by a significant margin in both datasets
Total shots is down in 2011-12 but up slightly in 2009 without Santi Cazorla but this number is not statistically significant
Successful dribbles in the final-third are down in both datasets but the difference is significant only in 2010-11 vs. 2011-12.
Penetration into the area (passes completed in the 18-yard box) is down by 7.16% 2011 vs. 2010. However it up by 12.31% in 2009 when Santi Cazorla was not in the line-up. However, these numbers are not statistically significant. More data is needed to establish the trend
The heat map of Cazorla in 2009 vs. 2010 (below) explains this. Santi Cazorla featured a lot on the left wing as compared to a more advanced and central role in 2010.

More observations on the Santi 2009 vs. 2010 heat map comparison

Santi Cazorla played more centrally and closer to the penalty area in 2010 compared to 2009
Cazorla has a strong influence in the final as well as the middle third of the pitch. This highlights his versatility at playing almost any position across the midfield as well as his contributions to the defensive side of the game.

Shots on Target

Villarreal 2010-11 vs. Villarreal 2011-12

Green – 18-yard box; Black – halfway line; Brown – final third (attacking)

Observations

Most shots on target coming through the center in both the years.
Difference erosion plot shows that there the median location of the shots on targets moves towards the center from left (inside 18-yard box) and backwards (away from the opponent’s goal)
- This indicates lesser penetration into the 18-yard area.
- The chances of scoring increase as the shot distance decreases. Here the median shot distance has increased, indicating a reduction in conversion of shots on target into goals.

Villarreal with Cazorla & without Cazorla in 2009-10 - Shots on Target Difference erosion plot

Observations

The median of the location of the shots on target has moved from inside the 18-yard box and the center to outside the penalty box and the left – This is a proxy for the lack of penetration into the final third.

Balance in attack

I looked at the percentage of completions from each zone (right, center & left) of the final third.

Note that the size of the center is almost double the size of either left or right zone. The 18-yard box is a part of the center zone.

Villarreal 2010-11 vs. Villarreal 2011-12

Successful completed passes proportionin the final third	With Santi 2010	Without Santi 2011	Statistically Significant
% thru the left	26.81%	31.84%	No
% thru the center	46.58%	37.08%	Yes
% thru the right	26.61%	31.07%	Yes

Villarreal with Cazorla & without Cazorla in 2009-10

Successful completed passes proportionin the final third	With Santi 2009	Without Santi 2009	Statistically Significant
% thru the left	27.82%	27.77%	Yes
% thru the center	43.09%	48.65%	No
% thru the right	29.09%	23.59%	No

Observations

In 2010-11, the completions in the final third are roughly split in 1:2:1 ratio for left, center and right respectively. This is very close to the actual ratios of the surface area in each of these zones
However, in 2011-12 (in the absence of Cazorla) the ratio is close to 1:1.2:1 that indicates the attack through the middle suffered.
In the 2009 season, the team seem to have had slightly more balanced attack without Cazorla in the line-up

Overall Findings – (aka, what Arsenal fans can expect from Santi Cazorla)

Santi Cazorla had a positive impact on all of the top-level KPIs. He also had a positive impact on almost all of the low level KPIs on the offensive side of the ball
Santi Cazorla had a positive on the penetration into the 18-yard box
The median distance of the shot on target was lesser with Santi Cazorla in the line-up : More penetration = more close range shots on target
Cazorla had a positive impact on the overall balance of the attack
Cazorla’s heat map of 2010v2011 shows that he has strong influence on the final third as well as the middle third of the pitch. This indicates his versatility to play at multiple positions in the midfield and his commitment to defensive duties.

Analytics, Arsenal, Data Visualization, La Liga, Málaga, Opta, Santi Cazorla, Tableau, Villarreal Arsenal, Data Visualization, Heatmaps, Málaga, Opta, R, Santi Cazorla, Soccer Analytics, Tableau

Villarreal 2011-12 – Breaking down a failed season

August 14, 2012 Ravi Ramineni No comments

Villarreal had a disastrous 2011-12 ending in an agonizing relegation to the 2^nddivision in the dying minutes of the season. In 2010-11 Villarreal reached the semifinals of the Europa League and finished 4^th in La Liga to qualify for the Champions League. I focus on the performance of Villarreal in the attacking third of the pitch in 2011 and compare it with that of 2010.

Objectives

Compare performance in the attacking third in 2011-12 and 2010-11.
Identify the possible causes for the decline in performance.

Methodology

Divided the final third into 6 zones based on histogram of passes.
Visualize and compare the passing in the final third of the pitch in 2011 & 2010 seasons, by zone, position and individual players.

Data

In-game event data of all La Liga games of Villarreal in seasons 2010 and 2011 from OptaPro

Tools & techniques

Hexagonal binning using R.
Tableau Public

Assumptions

Excluded the short passes of the short-corners near the corner flag area to get a granular picture of passing in all of the final third.

Analysis

Figure – 1:Passing summary in the final third 2010-11 vs. 2011-12

The above diagram visualizes Villarreal’s passing in the final third in 2010 & 2011 seasons.

The size of the circle is based on the # of pass attempts made in that zone.
The number in the middle of the circle is the # of pass attempts made in that zone.
The color gradient is based on pass completion % in that zone.

Findings

Passing completion % in the final third went down from 72.6% in 2010 to 69.6% in 2011.
The pass completion % is significantly down in all the zones of the final third (except Z1).
The penalty box(18y-box), the left wing (Z5) and the central zone (Z2) have seen the biggest drop in passing completion % (8.1%, 5.6% and 5.1% respectively)
21% – Drop in passes attempted in the central zone Z2.
7% – decline in pass completion in the central zone Z2.
22% – increase in the passes attempted in Z1.

Figure – 2: Hexbin of all completed passes in the final third of the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

Darker cells indicate more completed passes represented by the area of the cell. “Counts” legend gives the # of completed passes represented by each shade in the gradient.

Findings:

Villarreal attack appears more balanced in 2010 than in 2011.
There is a huge 21% drop in # of passes attempted in the central zone Z2.
The hypothesis is a combination of the following
1. Lack of penetration through the middle forcing the midfield players to pass it sideways early in the attack.
2. No good alternate options to fill the gaps left by Cazorla (sold to Malaga) and Rossi (out injured for 4/5ths of the season).

Figure – 3:2010 vs. 2011 difference plot

How to read an erosion difference plot?

In the erosion difference plot
1. The green cells indicate areas with similar amounts of passes in 2010 & 2011
2. The red cells indicate areas where there were more passes in 2010 but not in 2011
3. The cyan cells indicate areas where there were more passes in 2011 but not in 2010
4. The white cells indicate the median position of passes.
5. The arrow indicates the shift of the median from 2010 season to 2011 season.

Findings:

The red cells in the middle indicate the decline in completed passes through the middle in 2011.
The cyan cells on the right and left indicates an increase in completed passes on the wings.

The rest of the post breaks down these numbers by positions and players.

Midfield

I compared the top 4 starters in the midfield (by minutes played) in 2010 to 2011.

2010 – Borja Valero, Bruno Soriano, Santi Cazorla and Cani

2011 – Borja Valero, Bruno Soriano, Marcos Senna and Cani

Figure – 4:2010 vs. 2011 Midfield

Findings

Villarreal midfielders had trouble completing passes in the central zone Z2 in 2011
It seems like the midfielders were forced to pass sideways early in the attacks to Z1 & Z3.

Figure – 5:Difference Erosion plot– Midfield

Findings

This plot reinforces what we saw in Figure – 4. Red cells =Passing through the middle suffered.
The overall median of completed passes shifted from left to right as indicated by the arrow.

Now let us distill into the data of the players that make up the midfield.

Santi Cazorla

Figure – 6:Santi Cazorla’s 2010 passing in the final third.

Findings:

The two-footed Cazorla had a strong influence in the center (Z2) in 2010.
His absence on the field was felt in 2011. Villarreal’s passing through the middle suffered in quantity (down by 21%) and completion % (down by 7%)

Borja Valero

Figure – 7:Completed passes in the final third.2010 vs. 2011 – Borja Valero

Findings:

Borja Valero’s passing was more balanced across Z1, Z2& Z3 in 2010 compared to 2011.
In 2011 Borja Valero’s has been more active on in Z1 & Z3 and less active in the central Z2.
1. This indicates a lack of penetration through the middle. Opponents seem to have forced to Borja to pass to the right or left as soon as he got the ball in the final third.
2. Borja might not have found outlets early enough to pass the ball through the center and was probablyforced to pass it sideways to keep the possession.

Figure – 8:Difference erosion plot – Borja Valero

Findings:

The plot highlights earlier findings about increased passing in 2011 in on the right & left (Z1 & Z3) and decreased passing in Z2 compared to 2010.
The plot shows that median of Borja passes have shifted to the right.

Bruno Soriano

Figure – 10:Completed passes in the final third.2010 vs. 2011 – Bruno Soriano

Findings:

Bruno’s zone of influence seems be the left midfield
He had more influence in the final third in 2011 compared to 2010.
Bruno has been a lot more adventurous in 2011. The # of hexagons in and around the 18y-box is higher in 2011 than 2010. Bruno scored his first career goal of La Liga and 3 goals in total during the 2011 season.

Marcos Senna
Figure – 11: Completed passes in the final third.2010 vs. 2011 – Marcos Senna

Findings:

Marcos Senna’s was injured a lot in 2010 and didn’t play much.
As a right central midfielder in a double-pivot, his influence is on the center-right side of the pitch.
Along with Bruno he has been the bedrock of this shaky and inconsistent Villarreal side

Cani

Figure – 12:Completed passes in the final third.2010 vs. 2011 – Cani

Findings:

The plot shows Cani’s influence is predominantly on the left side.
His passing through the middle Z2 and the right zone Z3 seems to have suffered in 2011.
Dribbling and running at the opposition defenders is a key aspect of Cani’s game. To that effect his interventions near the 18y-box seem to have reduced in 2011.

Figure – 13: Cani difference Erosion plot

Findings:

Median of Cani’s completed passes has moved slightly left and backwards (away from the opponents goal)
The red cells closer to 18y-box imply that his influence in the vicinity of the 18y-box has decreased in 2011.
1. This points to lack of creativity and penetration through the middle.
2. Cani is probably forced to dribble from wide positions too early in the attack, making it easier for defenders to defend him.

Forwards

2010 – Nilmar, Rossi, Ruben

2011 – Ruben, Nilmar, Martinuccio, Joselu, Rossi

Figure – 15:Completed passes in the final third.2010 vs. 2011 – Forwards

Findings

More completed passes by forwards in the final third in 2010 vs. 2011, especially through the middle.
Villarreal forwards didn’t get much service through the middle in 2011

Figure – 16: Forwards – Difference erosion plot

Findings

The median of completed passes for forwards shifted backwards (away from the opponents goal) by about 5 meters
1. This is could be a pointer to something deeper like lack of penetration or creativity in the final third, forcing the forward to come deeper to receive the ball.

Giuseppe Rossi

Figure 17 – Completed passes in the final third.2010 vs. 2011 – Giuseppe Rossi

Findings:

Rossi plays across all zones in the final third and especially strong in the central zone Z2.
In 2011 Rossi suffered a season-ending cruciate ligament injury in week 8 of La Liga.
Rossi’s absence has been felt in central zone of the final third in 2011. Villarreal’s passing through the middle suffered in quantity (down by 21%) and completion % (down by 7%).

Figure – 18:Rossi Difference erosion plot

Findings:

The eroded difference plot gives an idea into shifts in positioning of Rossi from 2010 to 2011. Please note that we are comparing a relatively smaller dataset of 2011 (8 games) to 35 games in 2010.

The median of Rossi’s passes has moved about 5 meters backwards (away from the opposition goal.
1. This is a pointer to something deeper like lack of penetration or creativity in the final third, forcing Rossi to come deeper to receive the ball.

Nilmar

Figure – 19: Completed passes in the final third.2010 vs. 2011 – Nilmar

Findings:

Nilmar missed a lot 2011 season through injury or through coach’s decision not to play him due to the rumors around his transfer in January.
When he played, he wasn’t effective.
The few # of completed passes in 2011 could be due to
1. Lack of service
2. Villarreal played in a single striker formation in 25 of the 38 games

Figure – 20:Nilmar difference and erosion plot

Findings:

Nilmar’s median of passing shifted backwards (away from the opponents goal) and towards the center.
1. This indicates lack of supply to Nilmar in advanced positions forcing the forward to come deeper to receive service.

Marco Ruben

Figure – 21:Completed passes in the final third.2010 vs. 2011 – Marco Ruben

Findings:

Ruben wasn’t a regular starter in 2010. This explains partly, the bigger influence of Ruben in 2011 compared to 2010.
Villarreal played with a lone striker in 2011 a lot more times (27 of 38 games) than in 2010.
The dark hexagons in Z3 (right) Z2 (middle) could be areas where he came deep to receive the long passes.

Figure – 21:Ruben difference and erosion plot

Findings:

The erosion difference plot shows that the median of Ruben’s passes moved about 7-8 meters deeper (away from the opponent’s goal) and shifted to the right from a more central position
1. This implies Ruben had to come deeper to receive the ball.
2. Moving away from the center also implies lack of service when Ruben was in advanced positions.

Wingbacks

Figure – 23:Completed passes in the final third.2010 vs. 2011 – Right backs

Findings:

More attacking from the right wing back position in 2011 compared to 2010, especially in Zone 3.

Figure – 24:Completed passes in the final third.2010 vs. 2011 – Left backs

Findings:

The plot shows more attacking from the left back position in 2011 than 2010.
Joan Oriol featured a lot at LB in 2011 who tends to go forward often.

Summary of Findings

Final third passing data indicates that Villarreal’s attacking in the final third shifted from the center to right and left wings in 2011.
Data indicates that the absence of Santi Cazorla and Giuseppe Rossi contributed to the weakness of Villarreal through the middle.
Borja Valero’s overall influence increased in 2011. However his passing through the middle has declined in 2011 while his passing increased on right and left wings.
1. This is probably due to Villarreal’s attacks being pushed out wide early (and quite far away from the 18y-box) reducing their effectiveness.
The median of passing for Rossi, Cani, Marco Ruben and Nilmar has moved backwards (away from the opponent’s goal)
1. This could be a sign of forwards being starved of service forcing them to come deeper to get the back.
2. The passing median also shifted right or left for all midfielders and forwards further reinforcing the premise of lack of penetration through the middle.
The wingbacks seem to have supported the attack better in 2011. But the fact that the ball has been pushed wide early meant that the opponents were able to defend Villarreal’s attacks with greater success and ease.
Lack of penetration through the middle could also be due to slow build-up of attacks because of the lack of outlets upfront.
1. The team missed Rossi’s runs off the ball to create space to receive the through ball.
2. Villarreal also used 1-striker formations a lot of times in 2011 (25 out of 38 games) as opposed to their more common 4-4-2 formation due to a variety of personnel issues as well as tactical (3 different coaches in one season)

Analytics, Data Visualization, La Liga, Opta, Soccer Analytics, Statistics, Tableau, Villarreal Giuseppe Rossi, Hexagonal Binning, Opta, R, Santi Cazorla, Soccer Analytics, Tableau Public, Villarreal

Performance analysis: Villarreal 2011-12

June 11, 2012 Ravi Ramineni 2 comments

Villarreal had a disastrous 2011-12. They are relegated to the Spanish Segunda Division in the dying minutes of the season.

The obvious question was “What went wrong?”

The easy answers are the exit of Santi Cazorla and the long-term injury to Giuseppe Rossi. But that doesn’t fully explain how a team that featured in the Champions League group stage could get relegated.

This post compares the 2011-12 season to the 2010-11 season statistically to try and answer the question.

Data

Publicly available Player rating, Opposition, Formation and results of every La Liga game of Villarreal in the seasons 2010-11 and 2011-12 from Whoscored.com
Whoscored rating is based on custom algorithms that use in-game stats collected by Opta.

Data Shortcomings

The Whoscored.com rating is a single number where we don’t really know how it is calculated.
However it allows us to make relative comparisons.

Methodology

Compare the ratings of the goalkeeper, the defense, the wing backs, the midfield and the forward lines of 2012 to those of 2011.
*Excluded the games vs. teams that got relegated (Almeria, Hercules and Deportivo) and promoted (Rayo Vallecano, Granada and Real Betis) at the end of the 2010-11 season. This allows for comparing performance on a per opponent basis.
Demonstrate that the results are statistically significant (T-test)
Compare the overall team ratings with 4231 and 442 in the 2012 season
2012 progress chart with major events.

Midfield (Attacking midfielders + Central midfielders)

Figure 1 – Average midfield rating in 2011 and 2012 seasons by opponents
The opponents are sorted (left to right) based on their final position of the 2011-12 season.

Figure 2 – Delta in midfield rating between 2011 & 2012 by opponent
(negative means the rating was worse in the 2012 season)

2012 better than 2011 (delta >= +0.2)	8
2012 worse than 2011 (delta <= -0.2)	17
Almost even in both seasons (Delta between -0.2 and +0.2)	7

Figure 3 – Most frequent midfield starters in 2011 & 2012

Observations

Figure 1 shows a drop-off of 0.2 points in the average midfield rating from 2011 to 2012 (significant at the 95^th percentile).
The Standard deviation (-1, 1) bands indicate that the 2012 midfield was consistently worse than the 2011 midfield.
Figure 2 shows that Villarreal midfield played poorly against a lot teams that finished in the bottom half of the table. Getafe, Espanyol, Málaga and Athletic. They took just 8 out of the 24 points available against these 4 teams.
The midfield fared better in 2012 than in 2012 vs. Valencia but gave up late goals and took only 1 out of 6 points vs. their derby rivals.
Against Sporting and Sevilla, the midfield has improved from last year both home and away. ( took 10 out of 12 points against them this season)
Villarreal’s midfield played better against Real Madrid & Barcelona at home than they did last year. Earned two draws in 2012 vs. 2 losses in 2011.
Figure 3 shows Santi Cazorla left a huge gap in the starting line-up for 2012.

Wingbacks (Leftback & Rightback)

Figure 4 – Average wingback rating in 2011 and 2012 seasons by opponents

Figure 5 – Delta in Wingback rating between 2011 & 2012 by opponent

2012 better than 2011 (delta >= +0.2)	10
2012 worse than 2011 (delta <= -0.2)	17
Almost even in both seasons (Delta between -0.2 and +0.2)	5

Figure 6 – Most frequent Wingback starters in 2011 & 2012

Observations

Figure 4: The average rating at wingback dropped only slightly from 2011 to 2012 despite using six different players for at least 6 games in 2012 as opposed to only 4 in 2011 (only significant at the 80^th percentile). (Figure 6)
Figure 4: Standard Deviation band implies that the performances at wingback were more inconsistent in 2012.
Figure 5: The worst performance at Wingback was against Barça in a 5-0 loss at the Camp Nou. Joan Oriol and newly signed Cristian Zapata were the starting wingbacks in that game.

Defence – Centerbacks

Figure 7 – Average Centerback rating in 2011 and 2012 seasons by opponents

Figure 8 - Delta in Centerback rating between 2011 & 2012 by opponent

2012 better than 2011 (delta >= +0.2)	10
2012 worse than 2011 (delta <= -0.2)	19
Almost even in both seasons (Delta between -0.2 and +0.2)	3

Figure 9 – Most frequent Centerback starters in 2011 & 2012

Observations

Figure 7 shows that Center back average rating has dropped 0.3 points (significant at the 95^th percentile)
The biggest drop off at the Center back position was against Osasuna at home in a 1-1 draw. In the 2011 season Villarreal won this fixture 4-0.
The center-backs have performed poorly against teams that finished in the bottom half of the table.

Forwards

Figure 10 – Average rating of Forwards in 2011 and 2012 seasons by opponents

Figure 11 – Delta in Forwards’ rating between 2011 & 2012 by opponent

2012 better than 2011 (delta >= +0.2)	7
2012 worse than 2011 (delta <= -0.2)	20
Almost even in both seasons (Delta between -0.2 and +0.2)	5

Figure 12 – Most frequent starters at Forward in 2011 & 2012

Observations

Figure 10: Unsurprisingly, Villarreal saw the worst performance drop-off at the Forward position with a 0.6 points drop in average rating (significant at the 99^th percentile).
Figure 12: The team hasn’t been able to find a serviceable replacement for Giuseppe Rossi all season. Nilmar’s injuries and lack of form didn’t help the matters at all.
The team switched to an unfamiliar 4-2-3-1 formation with Marco Ruben as the lone forward. He to missed significant time due to niggling injuries.
The two worst drop offs in the performance of the forward line were against Levante and Espanyol, both at home. In 2011 Villarreal beat Levante 2-1 and beat Espanyol 4-0 at home.
The best rises in the ratings of the forward line were against Sevilla (home draw & away win) and the relegated Sporting (2 wins).

Goalkeeping

Figure 13 – Average rating of Goalkeeper in 2011 & 2012 seasons by opponents

Figure 14 – Delta in Goalkeepers’ rating between 2011 & 2012 by opponent

2012 better than 2011 (delta >= +0.2)	12
2012 worse than 2011 (delta <= -0.2)	9
Almost even in both seasons (Delta between -0.2 and +0.2)	9

Observations

Villarreal’s goalkeeping saw the least drop-off in the rating from 2011 to 2012 (no significant change)
Based on the Standard deviation bands, Diego Lopez was more consistent in 2012 than in 2011
Diego Lopez’s worst drop-offs in performance came against Málaga (away loss vs. an away in 2011), Sevilla (Home draw vs. a home win in 2011) and Athletic (Away draw vs. an away win in 2011)
Diego Lopez’s best performance was against Sevilla (away win).

Formation comparison: 4-4-2 vs. 4-2-3-1 in 2011-12

Figure 15

Observations

Figure 15 shows that despite playing 4-4-2 against tougher opposition (with Barça and Real Madrid home & away) Villarreal has performed better in 4-4-2 than 4-2-3-1/4-3-3
This underlines:
1. the importance of a serviceable 2^nd forward in the squad
2. Villarreal performs more optimally in 4-4-2.

Season Progress & major events

Figure 16

Observations

2 – Longest winning streak
4 – Longest undefeated streak
14 – Draws
3 – Coaches
14 – Villarreal failed to score in 14 games this season
26 – Villarreal scored 1 goal or less in 26 games this season
39 – Villarreal only scored 39 goals this season.

Nervous endings – the struggles of Villarreal to close out games

Figure 17

Observations

15 – Villarreal lost 15 points in the last 10 minutes. The lost leads in 10 games (lost 5, drawn 5).
6 – Villarreal was able to gain only 6 points in the last 10 ten minutes. They came back in 4 games (won 2, drawn 2)

Whoscored Ranking vs. League position

Figure 18

Observations

Villarreal’s average rating at the end of the season is at #11 despite finishing 18th in the league.

Conclusions

Injuries

Rossi’s absence and Cazorla’s exit were huge. But there was a drop-off in performances in the other areas of the pitch, most notably at the Centerback position.
Injury to Rossi and the lack of an in-form 2^nd forward also forced the team to change their optimal formation. They lined up in 4-4-2 only in 33% of the games (13/38)

Conceding late goals

Losing a lead after the 80^th minute in 10 out of 38 games a season (26.3%) is very bad. They missed avoiding relegation by 1 point. Needing one point to stay up, they lost the last game of the season to an 88^th minute goal by Falcao.
This possibly explains why Villarreal’s overall rating at the end of the season is 11^th despite finishing 18^th in the league standings.
- Could this be a fitness issue?
- Did players get tired mentally or physically towards the end of the games?

I would love to explore further to find answers for these questions. But I don’t have data to work with.

Lack of goals

Villarreal failed to score in 14 games. The best result possible in such games is only a draw.
Villarreal failed to score more than 1 goal in 12 games. It is hard to win a lot of games 1-0 with an inconsistent defense.

Inconsistency

The longest winning streak of the season is 2. The longest positive streak of the season is 4 (WDWW)
There was a drop off in performances in all positions except at GK. Most acute drop-off was seen in the Forward and Centerback positions.
Poor performances against teams in the bottom half of the table.

Analytics, Data Visualization, La Liga, Tableau, Uncategorized, Villarreal Data Visualization, La Liga, Soccer Analytics, Villarreal, Whoscored

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Impact of Santi Cazorla

Villarreal 2011-12 – Breaking down a failed season

Performance analysis: Villarreal 2011-12

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