There has been lots of talk about the goal glut that is happening in the Premier League right now.  Are pricey strikers to blame or is it the death of quality defense?  Decision Technology’s Ian Graham has already taken a look at debunking the Guardian’s piece on the “goal glut”.  I thought I’d add my two cents.

Total Goals Scored in the Premier League are increasing at an alarming rate...of less than 1 goal per matchday

Looking at total goals scored in the Premier League (and estimating the total for this season based on the current rate) we do see an upward trend.  However, this only works out to a rate of less than one additional goal per match day.  Are expensive new signings the reason for this?  It’s hard to say, but a variation this small could also be explained by a change of tactics by a single club. There seems to be a trend of some newly promoted teams playing a more open style rather than playing for the draw and hoping for survival.  Granted, the sample size is extremely small, but if you look at Blackpool last season and compare the goals involved in their matches versus other teams that were relegated in season’s past, the difference is about 30 goals (with the exception of Burnley in 2009/2010 who conceded a whopping 82 goals).  Put in this context, a difference of 30 goals per season for the entire league isn’t very substantial.

Another factor to consider is where we are in the season.  For baseball, pitchers and batters “get fit” at different rates.  It’s not uncommon for a batter to be on target for a ridiculous number of home runs early in the season, only for them to cool off as pitchers get more fit.  Is there a similar phenomena with goal scoring in the Premier League?

Average goals per match peaks in October before bottoming out in Jan/Feb.

Looking at Goals Per Game in each month over the last 6 seasons, we see pretty considerable variation across months.  The peak is in October before it bottoms out after the busy Christmas period (January and February) and finally picks up a bit before the end of the season.  Certainly, the fact that October is the highest scoring month and that this season was the highest rate for an October in the last 6 years adds to the perception that there is a substantial increase in goals.  In reality, August and September’s rates were within a standard deviation of the mean, and we expect the rate to decrease, so is this year really any different from years past?

Running total of goals scored throughout the season. This season is within the normal range of past seasons.

If we look at the running total of goals scored over the course of the season, this season (highlighted in orange) is still within the normal range of past seasons.  There really doesn’t seem to be much abnormal about the goal scoring rate of this season — just an abnormally high number of goals in the highest scoring month.

Omar Chaudhuri from 5 Added Minutes asked why there was this downward trend in the middle of the season and to be honest, I haven’t a clue.  There could be several factors: different fitness levels of different positions, squad rotations, fixture congestion, getting used to new teammates after the transfer windows.  Regardless of the reason, it will be interesting to see if the scoring rate cools down this season or if they can buck the trend and we really are experiencing a goal glut.